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The surveys results are in -- holiday travel is on the rebound.
AAA says Thanksgiving travel overall will increase 2.4 percent to 36 million travelers, up from 35.2 million last year. Some 4.6 million of those travelers will fly.
Over at Yahoo! Travel, the numbers are a little more dramatic: "Our recent Thanksgiving travel survey found 53 percent more people planning to travel this holiday season than last year. With airlines continuing to cut flights, our advice is to book early." On the up side, airlines will offer more than 1 million seats over 2002 levels, according to OAG, which tracks independent flight schedule information for more than 930 airlines.
Who has the numbers wrong? As Mark Twain said, there are three kinds of lies -- lies, damned lies, and statistics. But the point is made; volume will be up this year.
Here are my stats and tips for negotiating the next seven weeks of travel, arguably the most popular and most impossible weeks for travel we know.
Bargains
Bargains will keep coming, but most indicators say fares are edging upward. The folks at Orbitz have found that, on average, Thanksgiving fares are up 9 percent and Christmas fares are up 12 percent as compared to 2002 -- and I expect that popular routes will see price increases, and that full planes will mean full price.
To ease your pain, we've just launched a dedicated Holiday Bargains section, which will be updated daily.
Best and Worst Days to Travel
Thanksgiving:
Worst days: November 26, 30
Best days: November 24, 25, 29; December 2
Thanksgiving driving: Note that more people are on the roads on Thanksgiving Day than on Wednesday evening. However, when you add holiday travelers to the Wednesday evening commute, it's a very busy afternoon and evening. Sunday night is plain brutal.
Christmas/New Year's:
The stretch from December 18 to January 5 is the busiest two weeks of the year, with the air packed with planes and roads clogged with cars. You'll be able to run for the light during slight respites on December 18, 21, 25, 29, 30, and 31, and January 1 and 6.
Best days:
Dec 3 - 17 (see our Dead Week 2003 feature for more)
Dec 18, 21, 22, 25, 29, 30, 31,
Jan 1, Jan 6
The folks at Orbitz say that Monday, December 22 is the least popular day for Christmas weekend travel this year.
Worst:
December 19, 20, 23 - 24, 26 - 28
January 2 - 5
The folks at Orbitz say that Tuesday, December 23 is the most popular day for Christmas weekend travel this year.
Weather and Delays
Flight delays can occur at almost any time -- it may be 75 degrees and sunny outside the terminal window, but still you might experience a weather-related delay if the aircraft you are supposed to board is snowbound in Minneapolis. Morning flights are least likely to be affected by weather-related delays.
I've found the best way to deal with delays of all kinds, and especially weather-related delays, is to use a booking system that includes phone call notifications of delayed flights. I use my cell phone number; last year, I was one block from my house on my way to the airport when a call came with notification of a three-hour flight delay. I turned around and had a nice long breakfast, read the newspaper.
Tips
Gas up the night before you travel; no one leaves enough time for buying gas on the way to the airport.
Leave for the airport early. Note that I don't say "Get to the airport early." There's a lot more to worry about on this side of the security checkpoint.
Prepare for non-flight related ground delays. Forget delayed flights; more people miss on-time flights due to traffic problems, full parking lots, long check-in and security lines and the like. Anticipate these problems by checking traffic reports, airport websites, and, once again, budgeting more time.
Travel on Saturdays. In almost every case this year, travel on Saturday will be slightly less brutal than on Sunday.
Investigate your frequent flyer options to get better (and better guaranteed) seats.
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